ABSTRACT
With the increasing popularity of the Internet and the spread of COVID-19, epidemic-related rumors have attracted significant attention, allowing them to brew quickly and pose extremely negative social impacts. It is of great significance to investigate the propagation process of online rumors and offer tentative strategies to curb it. Based on the traditional susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) model of online rumor propagation, groups of potential and die-hard rumor believers were introduced in this paper, establishing an authoritative rumor-refuting mechanism. Meanwhile, this paper considered factors such as the time-lag effect of rumor refutation from the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions and the impact of the popularizing rate of higher education on the propagation and refutation of rumors. As a result of the process, the SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected) rumor propagation model was established to study how the proportion of the susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and die-hard-infected varies under different popularizing rates of higher education, the presence or absence of the authoritative rumor-refuting institutions, and the time-lag effect of rumor refutation. Finally, the model's effectiveness was verified via experimental simulation, which provided a reference for controlling the spread of online rumor propagation. In addition, the paper proposed a rumor-refuting coefficient to measure the rumor-refuting ability of the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions. The results show that (1) increasing popularizing rate of higher education significantly slows down the rumor propagation and reduces the rumor propagation peak;(2) refuting the rumors based on the authoritative institutions is decisive for the ultimate elimination of rumors;and (3) eliminating the time-lag effect in refuting rumors facilitates slowing down the propagation of the online rumors. Therefore, the paper puts forward a feasible strategy to eliminate the time-lag effect of online rumor refutation in the future. Copyright ©2022 Chinese Journal of Engineering. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Purpose>The purpose of this paper is to achieve effective governance of online rumors through the proposed rumor propagation model and immunization strategy.Design/methodology/approach>The paper leverages the agent-based modeling (ABM) method to model individuals from two aspects, behavior and attitude. Based on the analysis and research of online data, we propose a rumor propagation model, namely the Untouched view transmit removed-Susceptible hesitate agree disagree (Unite-Shad), and devise an immunization strategy, namely the Gravity Immunization Strategy (GIS). A graph-based framework, namely Pregel, is used to carry out the rumor propagation simulation experiments. Through the experiments, the rationality of the Unite-Shad and the effectiveness of the GIS are verified.Findings>The study discovers that the inconsistency between human behaviors and attitudes in rumor propagation can be explained by the Unite-shad model. Besides, the GIS, which shows better performance in small-world networks than in scale-free networks, can effectively suppress rumor propagation in the early stage.Research limitations/implications>This paper provides an effective immunization strategy for rumor governance. Specifically, the Unite-Shad model reveals the mechanism of rumor propagation, and the GIS provides an effective governance method for selecting immune nodes.Originality/value>The inconsistency of human behaviors and attitudes in real scenes is modeled in the Unite-Shad model. Combined with the model, the definition of diffusion domain is proposed and a novel immunization strategy, namely GIS, is designed, which is significant for the social governance of rumor propagation.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic put the world in a crisis regarding both physical and psychological health. Simultaneously, a myriad of unverified information flowed on social media and online outlets. The situation was so severe that the World Health Organization identified it as an infodemic in February 2020. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the propagation patterns and textual transformation of COVID-19-related rumors on a closed social media platform. METHODS: We obtained a data set of suspicious text messages collected on Taiwan's most popular instant messaging platform, LINE, between January and July 2020. We proposed a classification-based clustering algorithm that could efficiently cluster messages into groups, with each group representing a rumor. For ease of understanding, a group is referred to as a "rumor group." Messages in a rumor group could be identical or could have limited textual differences between them. Therefore, each message in a rumor group is a form of the rumor. RESULTS: A total of 936 rumor groups with at least 10 messages each were discovered among 114,124 text messages collected from LINE. Among 936 rumors, 396 (42.3%) were related to COVID-19. Of the 396 COVID-19-related rumors, 134 (33.8%) had been fact-checked by the International Fact-Checking Network-certified agencies in Taiwan and determined to be false or misleading. By studying the prevalence of simplified Chinese characters or phrases in the messages that originated in China, we found that COVID-19-related messages, compared to non-COVID-19-related messages, were more likely to have been written by non-Taiwanese users. The association was statistically significant, with P<.001, as determined by the chi-square independence test. The qualitative investigations of the three most popular COVID-19 rumors revealed that key authoritative figures, mostly medical personnel, were often misquoted in the messages. In addition, these rumors resurfaced multiple times after being fact-checked, usually preceded by major societal events or textual transformations. CONCLUSIONS: To fight the infodemic, it is crucial that we first understand why and how a rumor becomes popular. While social media has given rise to an unprecedented number of unverified rumors, it also provides a unique opportunity for us to study the propagation of rumors and their interactions with society. Therefore, we must put more effort into these areas.